WMO El Niño/La Niña Update
7 July 2017
Current Situation and Outlook
ENSO neutral conditions currently prevail in the tropical Pacific Ocean, despite sea surface temperatures being near the El Niño threshold. Most climate models surveyed indicate that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue through July-September 2017, followed by a 50-60% chance of a continuation of ENSO-neutral during the subsequent months of 2017. The development of El Niño conditions is slightly less likely, while the emergence of La Niña appears unlikely. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will continue to closely monitor changes in the state of ENSO over the coming months.
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 August 2017
ENSO Alert System Status
ENSO-neutral is favored (~85% chance during Jul-Sep, decreasing to ~55% during Dec-Feb) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18.